Australian industrial minerals firm Syrah Resources Limited recently made a fearless forecast that the sales of electric cars worldwide would reach 100 million units by 2020.
Global electric car sales in 2015 were recorded at a little over 450,000 units so analysts believe that the prediction is very much way off the mark.
It seems too ambitious a figure even if the firm is including in the count the hybrid, the plug-in hybrids, and the all-electric vehicles.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance made a more or less tempered prediction when it said that electric car sales would hit only 41 million units by 2020, which is also lofty but more realistic. The firm also included in its count the electric cars and plug-in hybrids, which shall be representing 35% of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2040 or 23 years from now, notes the Green Car Reports.
Syrah made the rather gargantuan sales projection because the company apparently plans to market minerals it mines to manufacturers of lithium-ion battery cells.
A weighted average of multiple forecasts also puts US market share for electric cars and plug-in hybrids at 8.2% by 2020.
The growth in electric car sales would be driven primarily by steady decreases in the cost of lithium-ion battery cells, analysts said.
Analysts also assumed that affordable 200-mile electric cars would become widely available, which means that the now-extraordinary Chevrolet Bolt EV and Tesla Model 3 would have to essentially become the norm by 2020.
Not too many electric cars in Europe
Ralph Hannappel, manager of electrification at General Motors’ German Opel division, believes that electric cars will only account for 15% of new car sales in Europe in 2030, which means the figure is much, much lower in 2020 as predicted by Syrah.
Hannappel’s estimate is somewhat less optimistic than others, but the oil industry’s view of electric cars seems to be downright negative.
Last year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicted that just 6% of cars on the world’s roads in 2040 would be powered by anything other than gasoline or diesel.
ExxonMobil made a similar prediction, saying electric cars could account for less than 10% of global new car sales in the same year.
No stopping electric cars in China
While American and European analysts differ of their predictions on the electric car sales by 2020, it seems that there is no stopping China from producing electric cars.
In fact, more electric cars are being sold in China than in the rest of the world combined, but are mainly locally-branded models that are cheaper and have a shorter range than those offered by foreign automakers such as Tesla and Nissan, reports Reuters.
The Chinese-branded electric vehicle market is propped up by huge government subsidies as part of Beijing’s policy to build global leadership in cleaner energy driving.
China has spent billions of dollars on subsidies to help companies including Warren Buffett-backed BYD and BAIC Motor achieve large-scale production of plug-in vehicles, which are gaining traction among urban drivers as well as taxi fleets and government agencies.
Sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrids increased 60 percent in January-November, to 402,000 vehicles. By 2020, China wants 5 million plug-in cars on its roads.
The domestic EVs do not have the ‘wow’ factor of a fast, longer-range and luxury-style that Tesla exudes. Chinese electric carmakers sell on price.
In fact, in Shanghai last year, a two-door battery electric Chery eQ cost around 60,000 yuan, about US$8,655, after subsidies. Without subsidies, the eQ would cost an additional 100,000 yuan or so.
An analyst says cars are very cheap in China. Most Chinese electric cars come with similar specifications, so price is the deciding factor
The Chery eQ has been the top seller in recent months, with decent quality at a low price because it is a transport tool and purely for mobility rather than for showing off.